Football Dissected

I'm going out on a hunch here and saying the Rovers will come out victorious. United player Barcelona midweek in the semi-finals of the Champions League and I think that'll play to Mark Hughes advantage. But here's the stats:

This season Blackburn have played 17 games at Ewood Park, winning 7, drawing 6 and losing 4 to take 27 points from a possible 51. They've scored 22 and conceded 17. They're ranked 11th in the league in terms of home form. In terms of recent from, in their last 10 games they've:

• won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3, taking 15 points from a possible 30
• kept 3 clean sheets
• not scored in 3 games
• scored first in 5 games

Meanwhile, in terms of when they score their goals, it seems Blackburn only wake up in the second half. An amazing 66% of their goals have come in the second half. Unfortunately, they seem to either lose concentration or suffer from fatigue in the last 15 minutes as that is when they've conceded most of their goals (28.57% in fact).

At Old Trafford, United have been unstoppable. But away from home, they've been average. They've played 16 games away from home this season, winning 9, drawing 4 and losing 3 to take 31 points from a possible 48. They've scored 29 goals and conceded 12 away from Old Trafford to give them the second best away from this season (only Chelsea have done better by winning 8 more points away from home). In terms of recent form, in their last 10 games they've:

• won 9 and drawn only 1 (their last away match against Middlesbrough), taking 28 points from a possible 30
• kept 8 clean sheets
• scored in every game
• scored first in 9 games

United goals have mostly come in the last 15 minutes of games (just over 29%). And that doesn't look good for Blackburn. But in terms of conceding, United seem to concede most goals in either the first 15 minutes of the second half (just over 22%) or in the last 15 minutes of games (just under 28%). So maybe there is hope for the Rovers after all.

In the last 10 games between United and Blackburn, United have the advantage with 5 wins, 2 draws and just 3 loses. But ominously for the Red Devils, they've only won once at Ewood Park in 7 visits since 1999 and in the last 4 meetings at Ewood Park, Blackburn have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1.

United will have Barcelona in midweek, but I'm sure Sir Alex will be driving home the message that there's still work to be done if they want to retain their championship. But still I believe Blackburn have the capability to cause a major upset and to set up a thrilling finale to the season.

My Prediction: Blackburn 2 - 1 Manchester United