Football Dissected

Sevilla have had a great season so far, returning to their previous best. They've been terrific at home and fairly good away, which is why I'm tipping them for victory come tomorrow. Here are the stats:

So far this season, Getafe played 10 games winning 3, drawing 4 and losing 3 to take a total of 13 points from a maximum of 30. They've scored just 10 goals, an average of a goal a game, but even worse is that they've conceded 12. They're ranked 16th in La Liga in terms of overall home record. In terms of recent form they've:

• kept 3 clean sheets
• not scored in 2 games
• scored first in 6 games

Getafe seem to perform better in the final 30 minutes than at any other time since 60% of their goals have been scored during this period. However, it would seem that fatigue seems to sets in the final 15 minutes since 33% of the goals they've conceded have come in this time.

Meanwhile, the Andalusians have slowly returning to their best. In the 10 games played so far, they've won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2, taking 20 points from 30. Sevilla have scored twice as more goals as they've conceded (16 to 8), indicating an aggressive, attacking philosophy from manager Manolo Jiménez. Surprisingly, this attacking philosophy seems to be paying dividends for their defence. They've only conceded 8 goals which is the equal best in the league (the other team are league leaders Barcelona). They're ranked as the 5th best team in the league for away record. In terms of recent form they have:

• kept 6 clean sheets
• not scored in 2 games
• scored first in 7 games

Sevilla's goals have mostly come in either the period 16-30 minutes or the final 30 minutes (they've scored 5 goals in each period). In terms of conceding, most of the goals have come in the final 30 minutes of the first half (62.5% in fact), suggesting the teams they've played against only seem to wake up and actually start playing after the first 15 minutes.

In the last 8 games between these two (in the league), Sevilla have the narrow advantage as they've won 3, drawn 3 and lost 2. Out of those 8 games, however, Sevilla have yet to beat Getafe away from home.

After Getafe, Sevilla have four massive games against the teams above them: they're at home to Valencia next week, then they welcome Barcelona the following week, then its away to Real Madrid, and then they play Villarreal at home. As a result Manolo Jiménez will want to get maximum points at Getafe, meaning he'll probably field his best team. Getafe have it diffucult as well. Next they visit the Camp Nou to face Barcelona, then they welcome Real Madrid and then they're away to the Yellow Submarine. Both teams will want to win this game to make sure they have some points before they come up against the top 4.

My Prediction: Getafe 1 - Sevilla 3