Football Dissected

Just 6 games have been played between Malaga and Numancia since 1993. Out of those 6 games, Malaga just have the advantage with their 3 wins against Numancia’s 2. The last encounter between these two took place all the way back in the 2004/05 season where Malaga recorded a 1-0 away victory. Malaga also won the reverse fixture that season, winning comfortably 4-1 in September.

Currently Malaga are among the four teams situated in the bottom half of the table that have 18 points. In the fourteen games played so far, they’ve won 5, drawn 3 and lost 6. At home they’ve done reasonably well compared to teams around them. In the seven games played at the (stadium name), they’ve won 3, drawn 2 and lost 2 to take a total of 11 points, which is 61% of their total points. At home they’ve managed to put the ball into the back of the net a total of 11 times, but their defence is much to be desired with the 12 goals conceded. This home form is currently ranked 11th in the league, not the best but it’s also not the worst. Like with so many teams, away from home seems to be the problem. In seven away games, they’ve won 2, drawn 1, and lost 4 to take just 7 points from a possible 21. And, just like at home, Malaga seem to be suffering at the back. So far they’ve scored 10 goals, but they’ve conceded a massive 13, an average of just under 2 a game. With that basic fact, winning games away from is always going to be difficult. Their goals are widespread in terms of when they’re scored, suggesting a team that’s working their hardest to win games. Conceding, however, is another issue. 52% of the goals they’ve conceded have come in the final 30 minutes, suggesting a problem with fatigue and a loss of concentration that is normally associated with it. Perhaps midfield substitutions, preferably the holding midfielder(s), during this period would aid in keeping the door shut at the back.

These are the facts for Malaga’s last 10 games in all competitions:

• They’ve won 5, drawn 2, and lost 3
• They’ve kept only 2 clean sheets
• They’ve been the first team to score in 6 games
• They’ve not scored at all in just 1 game

Their last league game was the 0-2 defeat away at Deportivo LaCoruna. Malaga will be hoping that Baha, Duda and Eliseu are on form should they be playing, seeing as together the three of them have scored 13 goals between them.

In the fourteen games played so far this season, Numancia have struggled to say the least. In the fourteen games, they’ve won 4, drawn 2 and lost 8, giving them 14 points out of a maximum of 42 and a league position of 15th. But just like Malaga, Numancia can take heart from their home form. In the seven games played so far at the (stadium name), they’ve won 3, drawn 2 and lost 2 to take 11 points from a maximum of 21. At home they’ve scored 9 and conceded 9, including letting Real Betis ship 4 past them back in early November in a 4-2 loss. And like Malaga, away from home seems to be their undoing. Ranked 19th in the league for their away record this season, Numancia have only managed to take 3 points from a possible 21, their only away victory coming in the middle of November with a hearted 4-3 victory over Espanyol. And the bad records don’t stop there. Away from home they’ve scored 8, but with the 20 goals they’ve conceded they have the worst away defence in the league.

Their goals are coming more or less in the first 30 minutes as nearly 48% of their goals have been scored during this period. This suggests a team that flies out of the trap quickly but then can’t maintain that same momentum for the rest of the 90 minutes. This point is proven by the fact that over 50% of the goals they’ve conceded have come during the last fifteen minutes of each half, suggesting again that there is a problem with fatigue and a loss of concentration.

These are the facts for Numancia’s last 10 games in all competitions:

• They’ve won 3, drawn 2, and lost 5
• They’ve kept 1 clean sheet
• They’ve been the first team to score in 4 games
• They’ve not scored at all in 4 games

Their last league game was their 2-1 home win over 14th place Almeria. Like Malaga, they have no injuries but they’ll sure be missing Barkero, their top goal scorer, as he’s suspended after his red card against Almeria.

After losing 2-0 to Deportivo last weekend, Malaga will want nothing more than to get back to winning ways and the perfect time and place to do just that will be this weekend at home. Numancia, on the other hand, will be hoping that come Monday it won’t be seven away defeats.

My Prediction: Malaga 2 – 0 Numancia