Football Dissected

Since 1993, these two teams have met 28 times in total, with Deportivo just slightly ahead with their 10 wins to Athletic’s 9. The last 3 times these teams have played against each other, Athletic have been on top, winning two with the third being a 1-1draw last season. But these stats hardly help us analyse the teams this season.

Athletic are having their typical average season. In the twelve games played so far this season they’ve won 3, drawn 4 and lost 5 to give them 13 points and 12th position. At home, their record is pretty good – 1 win, 4 draws and 1 loss while they’ve scored 4 and conceded 4. But it’s their away form that is killing them this season. In 6 away games, they’ve won 2, which is fairly good seeing as they’ve only won 1 game at home, but they’ve lost 4, missing out on 12 points which if they had taken would have them given them 25 points and 3rd position.

These are the facts for Athletic’s last 10 games in all competitions:

• They’ve won just 3, drawn 3 and lost 4
• They’ve kept just 2 clean sheets (both at home against teams in the bottom 3)
• They’ve been the first team to score in 6 games
• They’ve not scored at all in 4 games
  

The low number of clean sheets is evidence of their inability to hang on in the final 30 minutes seeing as that’s the period when they’ve conceded 7 of their 14 goals this season. Yet as bad as that is, their ability to score first is outstanding. Led by Aduriz Zubeldia and Etxeberria, who between them have scored 7 of Athletic’s 10 goals, Athletic have scored first in 6 of their games, a good percentage of 50%. Their last game was the 2-1 defeat away to Espanyol on the 11th.

Unlike the 90s when they were a major force in La Liga, Deportivo have been struggling for the past few years. And this is evidence for their poor form this season. In the 12 games played, they’ve won 3, drawn 3 and lost 6 to give themselves 12 points and a 17th position so far. But contrasting to the good form Athlethic have at home, Deportivo have been abysmal at home. They’ve won just 1, drawn 1 and lost 4 to take just 4 points from a possible 18, giving them the worst home record this season. But, their away form is surprisingly and strangely better. On the road, they’ve won 2, drawn 2 and loss 2 to take 8 points out of a possible 16, giving them the 6th best away record. And their defence and goalkeeping is better than Athletic’s.

These are the facts for Deportivo’s last 10 games in all competitions:

• They’ve won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5
• They’ve have kept 4 clean sheets (3 of which were away from home against good opposition such as Sevilla and Getafe)
• They’ve been the first team to score in 4 games
• They’ve failed to score at all in 4 games.
  

Yet they’ve conceded 17 goals in total and the goals have mostly come in either the first 15 or last 15 minutes of the first half, the former being the period where Athletic get most of their goals. And their scoring hasn’t been fantastic either. So far this season, they’ve scored just 10 goals, over half of which have come from Guardado and Jimenez Tejada. Kasmirski will be missed as he serves an suspension after seeing red in Deportivo’s 1-0 defeat at home to Racing Santander on the 11th.

Out of the two, Deportivo is far better in terms of away form, but Athletic is the better team overall and are odds on favourite to win this one.

My prediction: Athlethic Club Bilbao 2 – 1 Deportivo LaCoruna.