Football Dissected

18 games have been played between these two teams since the 93-94 season. Athletico have the better record by far with their 11 wins to Valladolid’s 6. But in the last 3 meetings, which date back to the 2003-04 season, it’s been Valladolid who have been the better team, winning twice, both of which they beat Athletico by 3-1. In the last meeting in 2004, Athletico just edged it, winning 2-1. Since then, of course, the teams have changed and in the case of Athletico, it’s changed considerably.

Athletico are having a great season so far. In twelve games played, they’ve won 6, drawn 3 and lost 3 to give them 21 points and 6th position. Their home record is the 4th best in the league – they’ve won 4, drawn 1, lost 1 while scoring a massive 18 goals, the best scoring record at home for any team in La Liga, and conceding 8. And their away form is exactly like Deportivo La Coruna. They’ve won 2, drawn 2 and lost 2 while scoring 5 and conceding 6, giving them the 7th best away record in the league. 23 goals in 12 games (an average of nearly 2 per game) is a very good record by anyone’s standard. And the goals have been coming mostly from the young, promising Argentina forward Sergio Aguero, who’s got 7 so far this season. Forlan and Rodriguez have pitched in with some important goals as well, scoring 7 goals in total. So far this season, 14 of Athletico’s goals have been scored in either in the first or last quarter of the ninety-minutes while they’ve conceded a total of 8 goals in the first half and 5 goals in the last 15 minutes.

These are the facts for Athletico’s last 10 games in all competitions:

• They’ve won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2
• They’ve kept 6 clean sheets (a good omen anyone would say)
• They’ve been the team to score first in 8 games
• They’ve not scored at all in just 2 games (a 0-0 draw away to Almeria and a 3-0 defeat away to Barcelona)

Their last game was the 0-0 draw away to Almeria, but this weekend they’ll be without Diego Forlan due to injury.

Valladolid are having a typical mid-table season. In the twelve games played so far, they’ve won 3, drawn 4 and lost 5 to give them 13 points and 14th position. Unusually, their home record is the 4th worst in La Liga – they’ve won just 1, drawn 3, and lost 2 to take just 6 points from a possible 18, which if they had completely taken would have given them 25 points and 3rd position. At home they’ve scored 7 and conceded 12. But their away form, again surprisingly, has been considerably better. In 6 away games, they’ve won 2, drawn 1, and lost 3 while scoring 9 and conceding 12, giving them the 8th best away record. Conceding is obviously the major problem for the team at the moment and it’s true what they say – goals do win games. 11 out of the 22 goals Valladolid have conceded, 50% in other words, have come in the final fifteen minutes, a clear sign of tired legs equalling tired minds. The goals they’ve scored, meanwhile, have either come in the last fifteen minutes of the first half or in the second quarter of the second half and they’ve from all over the place: Gutierrez has 4 so far this season while Llorente, Robles and Sesma all have 2 each.

These are the facts for Valladolid’s last 10 games in all competitions:

• They’ve won just 2, drawn 3 and lost 5
• They’ve kept just 1 clean sheet
• They’ve been the first team to score in 6 games
• They’ve not scored at all in just 1 game

Unlike Athletico, Valladolid are the complete opposite when it comes keeping clean sheet in the last 10 games as you can see above. They’ve only managed one clean sheet, which is probably the best sign that Athletico are going to get some goals. But as bad as that is, Valladolid have been the team to score first in 6 of the last 10 and have, impressively, failed to score at all in just one game, which was a 2-0 defeat away to 7th placed Racing Santander. Their last game was the 1-0 home win over bottom-of-the-table Levante.

If Valladolid can make sure they don’t switch off in the final quarter like they have been doing this season, they may have a shot against Athletico. But, nevertheless, I think Athletico have enough quality in the team to win this game easily.

My prediction: Athletico Madrid 3 – 0 Real Valladolid.