Football Dissected

Just 4 games have been played between Barcelona and Recreativo since the 1993-94 season, due in large part to Recreativo having just brief spells in the top-flight now and again. In the 4 games played between these two, Barca have won them all. The first encounter, back in January 2003, Barca won 3-0 and then just over four months later, they won again, this time 3-1. The other two meetings took place last season with Barca winning 3-0 at home and 4-0 away. This season marks the first time for a long time Recreativo are playing in the top-flight for back-to-back seasons.

Barca are contending, once again, for the title. In the twelve games played so far, they’ve won 7, drawn 3 and lost 2 to give them 24 points and 3rd position. They have the best home record so far this season, winning 6 out of 6 to take maximum points, while they’ve scored 17 goals, the second best behind Athletico Madrid, and conceded just 3. Like last season, their away form is proving to be the thorn in their side. In six away games, they’ve won just 1, drawn 3 and lost 2 to take just 6 points from a possible 18, giving them the 10th best away record so far. And it seems goal scoring is the major problem away from the Nou Camp. Unlike at home where they’ve scored a massive 17 goals in 6 games, away they’ve only managed to score 6 and they’ve conceded 7. And the goals they score seem to be coming in the first half and from the main 3 attacking players: Messi has 7 while both Henry and Ronaldinho have 5 each. So far, they’ve scored 14 of their goals in the first half while scoring just 9 in the second period. And in terms of conceding, they’ve conceded 6 goals, 60% in other words, in the first half.

These are the facts for Barca’s last 10 games in all competitions:

• They’ve won 6, drawn 2, and lost 2
• They’ve kept 6 clean sheets (mostly at home)
• They’ve been the first team to score in 6 games
• They’ve not scored at all in just 2 games
  

Their last league game was the 2-0 defeat away to Getafe, where many would agree they looked completely out of sorts. And the players listed below look to be out for this weekend:

• Rafael Márquez
• Deco
• Samuel Eto'o
• Edmílson
  

Even though they’re in 17th, Recreativo will be pleased with the way they’ve started their campaign, especially seeing as only 6 points separate 10th and 19th. In the twelve games played, Recreativo have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 6 to give themselves 12 points and 18th position. At home they’ve been fairly good – they’ve won 2, drawn 2, and lost 2 to take 8 points from a possible 18 while they’ve scored 4 and conceded 5. Like most teams, their away form is the worse of the two. In six away games, they’ve only won 1 (a 2-0 win over Deportivo LaCoruna), drawn 1, and lost 4 to take just 4 points. If they had at least drawn the 4 games they had lost, then right now they would have 16 points and 10th position. Just like Barca, scoring on the road seems to be Recreativo’s problem. In their six away games, they’ve scored just 4 while they’ve conceded 10.

And the goals they score seem to be coming within the first fifteen minutes of the second half, seeing as they’ve scored half of their goals in this period. The goals are also coming from 3 main players: Guerrero has 3 while both Martins and Sinama-Pongolle have 2 each. The goals they’re conceding are more or less evenly spread out across the ninety, with first fifteen minutes being when they’ve conceded the most and the second quarter of an hour being when they haven’t conceded at all. This suggests that Recreativo are often caught out within the first fifteen minutes and only slowly come into the game after that.

These are the facts for Recreativo’s last 10 games in all competitions:

• They’ve won 3, drawn 1, and lost 6
• They’ve kept 3 clean sheets
• They’ve been the first team to score in just 2 games
• They’ve not scored at all in 6 games
  

Their last league game was their 1-0 home win over 15th placed Osasuna. They’ll be without Gerard, who received a red in the game against Osasuna, and it appears Barber will not play either.

After losing 2-0 to Getafe, Barca will be keen to get things back on track, especially after Real Madrid have now opened up a 4 point lead at the top. And even though they’ll be missing key players such as Deco and Eto’o, Barca still have the quality to beat Recreativo, particularly now that Henry has started scoring.

My prediction: Barcelona 3 – 0 Recreativo Huelva